Here we see a seasonal pattern, with surplus energy generated from wind in the winter and spring having to be stored in the summer for re-use in the coming winter, and with storage capacity reaching a maximum of slightly over 25,000 GWh (25 TWh) in May. The second plots the GWh of storage needed to match these surpluses and deficits to daily demand. There is no well-marked seasonal pattern. The first graphic on Figure 4 plots these surpluses and deficits. Generation broadly follows demand during the year but the erratic wind generation creates periodic surpluses of up to 80,000 MW and deficits of up to 50,000 MW:įigure 3: Case 1 combined wind + solar factored to 100% of demand vs. demand, daily average dataįigure 3 compares 2016 demand with combined wind + solar when wind + solar is factored up so that it generates 100% of total annual demand. Adding solar to wind tends to flatten out annual generation but does not make it an ideal match to demand:įigure 2: Case 1 wind + solar generation vs. Wind generation, which is highly erratic, peaks in the winter while solar generation, which is far smoother (at least when presented as daily averages) peaks in the summer:įigure 1: Case 1 actual wind and solar generation, daily average data for Germanyįigure 2 compares combined wind + solar generation during 2016 with demand. I have assumed $200/kWh, about half current utility-scale Li-ion battery costs.Ĭase 1applies the assumptions listed above to wind generation, solar generation and demand in Germany in 2016 using daily average data from P-F Bach.įigure 1 shows shows Germany’s actual wind and solar generation in 2016. The global (battery) energy storage market will grow to a cumulative 942GW/2,857GWh by 2040, attracting $620 billion in investment over the next 22 years.Ģ,857 GWh costing $620 billion works out to $217/kWh. * Batteries: The best estimate I came across was in an article from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, according to which: * Capital cost for utility-sized wind plants = $1,500/kW, solar = $1,000/kW (based on various sources). On future costs I made the following assumptions: It should be noted, however, that the results are not predictions of what might happen in Germany and California because local conditions are not taken into account.
![home wind power cost home wind power cost](https://image2.slideserve.com/4475651/installation-cost-l.jpg)
I used Germany and California partly because seasonal wind and solar generation in Germany tend to offset each other while they reinforce each other in California, and partly because I have grid data for both. Case 1 uses actual wind generation, solar generation and demand in Germany in 2016 and Case 2 actual wind generation, solar generation and demand in California in 2017. * Transmission system upgrades are ignored. Neither is the option of installing more wind + solar than is necessary to meet demand, which will have the opposite effect but at the expense of increased curtailment (see this post for more details). Shorter-term variations in generation, which will tend to increase storage requirements, are not considered. * Enough battery storage is added to match wind + solar generation to annual demand based on daily average data. This broadly analogs the approaches a number of countries have adopted or plan to adopt. * Baseload and load-following generation is progressively replaced with intermittent wind and solar generation, with baseload and load-following generation decreasing in direct proportion to the percentage of wind + solar generation in the mix. Renewables generation, including hydro, is zero. * It starts out with 30% baseload generation and 70% load-following generation.
![home wind power cost home wind power cost](http://www.allwindturbine.com/uploadfile/k9/kingwinchen2119/product/residential-wind-turbine/Hummer-500w-residential-wind-turbine-1368167246-0.jpg)
* The grid is an “electricity island” – i.e. Accordingly I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
HOME WIND POWER COST PLUS
Making detailed estimates of the future costs of intermittent renewables + battery storage for any specific country, state or local grid requires consideration of a large number of variables, plus a lot of crystal-ball gazing, and is altogether too complicated an exercise for a blog post. Obviously a commercial-scale storage technology much cheaper than batteries is going to be needed before the world’s electricity sector can transition to intermittent renewables. The results show that while batteries may be useful for fast-frequency response applications they increase the levelized costs of wind and solar electricity by a factor of ten or more when used for long-term – in particular seasonal – storage. Here, using two simplified examples, I quantify these costs. For some time now we here on Energy Matters have been harping on about the prohibitive costs of long-term battery storage.